HOW WE KNOW
YOUR PUB IS FUCKED
THE DATA
We use official data from the Valuation Office Agency (VOA), the government body responsible for business rates in England and Wales.
Specifically, we compare the 2023 Rating List (current rates) with the 2026 Draft Rating List (proposed new rates).
We filter for properties with SCAT codes 226 & 227 (Public Houses), 062 (Inns), 303 (Wine Bars), and 137 (Small Hotels with bars) — then join the datasets using the UARN (Unique Address Reference Number).
THE JARGON (IN PLAIN ENGLISH)
Not from the UK? Here's what all these terms mean:
- Rating List — The official government list of all business properties in England & Wales, and what they're worth for tax purposes. Gets updated every few years. The 2023 list is what pubs pay now; the 2026 draft is what they'll pay from April 2026.
- Rateable Value (RV) — The government's estimate of what a property would rent for per year on the open market. It's NOT the actual tax bill — it's the number they use to calculate it.
- Business Rates — The tax businesses pay to their local council. Like council tax, but for businesses. Calculated from the Rateable Value multiplied by around 50p per pound, minus any reliefs.
EXAMPLE
A pub with a Rateable Value of £50,000 might pay around £25,000/year in business rates (after multiplier and reliefs). If the 2026 list raises their RV to £85,000 (+70%), their bill could jump to £42,500/year — that extra £17,500/year is what could fuck them.
THE RELIEF PACKAGE
On 27 January 2026, the government announced a support package for pubs. This is genuinely good news — and the attention this issue received may have helped.
WHAT WAS ANNOUNCED
- 15% rate cut — on new business rates bills from April 2026
- £1,650 savings — what the average pub saves in 2026/27
- 75% of pubs will see bills fall or stay flat in 2026/27
- 8% less overall — pub sector pays 8% less in rates by 2029 vs today
- Duration — 15% cut for 2026/27, then two-year real-terms freeze
- Valuation review — how pubs are valued will be reviewed for 2029
Note: England only. Scotland, Wales & NI decide separately.
WHAT IT MEANS
For most pubs, the immediate rates crisis has been addressed. Three-quarters will see their bills stay flat or fall in 2026/27. That's a real win.
WHY THE FPI STILL MATTERS
The data on this site shows the underlying rateable value pressure. Even though bills are lower in 2026/27 due to relief, that underlying pressure hasn't gone away — it's just masked temporarily. When the 15% relief expires in 2029, pubs with big RV increases will feel it again.
WHO DOESN'T BENEFIT
The 15% relief helps most pubs — but not all equally.
Pubs jumping from below the Small Business Rate Relief threshold to above it may still face significant new bills. Transitional relief caps mean some publicans won't see the full benefit of the 15% cut for years.
EXAMPLE
A pub whose rateable value rises from £10,750 to £17,500 loses Small Business Rate Relief entirely. Their new bill is ~£7,000, but transitional relief caps year 1 at £800. The 15% discount doesn't change that cap — they're paying £800 they weren't paying before regardless.
For pubs in this situation, the announcement changes very little.
2029: THE CLIFF EDGE
The 15% pub relief is temporary — it applies to 2026/27 only, then gets replaced by a “real-terms freeze” until 2029.
After 2029, only the permanent 5p multiplier difference remains. For pubs with significant underlying RV increases (50%+), this could mean a substantial bill jump when relief ends.
Bottom line: The government bought pubs 3 years of breathing room. That's welcome — but the structural issue hasn't been solved, just deferred.
THE BROADER PRESSURES
Business rates are just one pressure pubs face. Even with rate relief, they're dealing with:
- National Living Wage — rising to £12.21/hour in April 2026
- Employer National Insurance — up 1.2 percentage points
- Alcohol duty — continues to rise
- Energy costs — still elevated from 2022 spike
- Consumer spending — customers visiting less, spending less per visit
The rate relief helps, but it doesn't address these other headwinds. Pubs still need your support.
THE FUCKED PUB INDEX (FPI)
The FPI is a score from 0-100 that measures how badly a pub is affected by the rate changes. Higher scores mean the pub is more “fucked”.
SEVERITY LEVELS
| % Change | FPI Range | Status |
|---|---|---|
| <10% | 0-10 | Somehow Fine |
| 10-50% | 10-30 | Feeling It |
| 50-100% | 30-60 | Struggling |
| 100-200% | 60-90 | Fucked |
| >200% | 90-100 | Absolutely Fucked |
IMPORTANT CAVEATS
- This is the draft list. Final rates may differ after the consultation period.
- Rateable value ≠ actual rates bill. The actual bill depends on the multiplier, reliefs, and transitional arrangements.
- Some pubs may be missing. We match VOA data with OpenStreetMap to get pub names and coordinates. Not all pubs have complete data.
- England & Wales only. Scotland and Northern Ireland have separate rating systems.
DATA SOURCES
- VOA Rating List Downloads
- OpenStreetMap (for pub names and locations)
- Postcodes.io (for geocoding)
- Oxford Partnership Market Watch (for industry-wide statistics)
WHO MADE THIS
Built by @bjhguerin in a fit of data-driven rage about the state of British pubs.
This is not affiliated with or endorsed by the VOA, HMRC, or any government body. It's just a bloke with a spreadsheet and a love of pubs.
WANT TO HELP?
The best thing you can do is go to your local pub. Buy a pint. Have a chat. Support them while they still exist.
If you want to share this site, use the hashtag #IsMyPubFucked.